Spatial and dynamic models. Classification of types of modeling

Definition. A dynamic system is understood as an object that is in one of the possible states Z at each moment of time tT and is able to move in time from one state to another under the influence of external and internal causes.

A dynamic system as a mathematical object contains the following mechanisms in its description:

  • - description of the change in states under the influence of internal causes (without the intervention of the external environment);
  • - description of the reception of the input signal and the state change under the action of this signal (the model in the form of a transition function);
  • - description of the formation of the output signal or the reaction of the dynamic system to internal and external causes state changes (model in the form of an output function).

The arguments of the input and output signals of the system can be time, spatial coordinates, as well as some variables used in the Laplace, Fourier and other transformations.

In the simplest case, the system operator transforms the vector function X(t) into a vector function Y(t). Models of this type are called dynamic (temporary).

Dynamic models are divided into stationary, when the structure and properties of the operator W(t) do not change with time, and non-stationary.

The response of a stationary system to any signal depends only on the time interval between the start of the input disturbance and the given time. The process of converting the input signals does not depend on the shift of the input signals in time.

The response of a non-stationary system depends both on the current time and on the moment the input signal is applied. In this case, when the input signal is shifted in time (without changing its shape), the output signals not only shift in time, but also change shape.

Dynamic models are divided into models of inertialess and inertial (models with delay) systems.

Inertialess models correspond to systems in which the operator W determines the dependence of output values ​​on input values ​​at the same time - y=W(X,t).

In inertial systems, the values ​​of the output parameters depend not only on the present, but also on the previous values ​​of the variables

Y=W(Z,хt,хt-1,…,хt-k).

Inertial models are also called models with memory. The transformation operator may contain parameters that are usually unknown - Y=W(,Z,X), where =(1,2,…,k) is the vector of parameters.

The most important feature of the structure of the operator is the linearity or non-linearity with respect to the input signals.

For linear systems, the principle of superposition is always valid, which consists in the fact that a linear combination of arbitrary input signals is associated with the same linear combination of signals at the output of the system

Mathematical model using linear operator can be written as Y=WX.

If condition (2.1) is not satisfied, the model is called nonlinear.

Dynamic models are classified according to what mathematical operations are used in the operator. We can distinguish: algebraic, functional (such as a convolution integral), differential, finite-difference models, etc.

A one-dimensional model is one in which both the input signal and the response are both scalar quantities.

Depending on the dimension of the parameter, the models are divided into single- and multi-parameter ones. The classification of models can also be continued depending on the types of input and output signals.

3D cartographic images are electronic maps of a higher level and are visualized on the means computer systems modeling spatial images of the main elements and objects of the terrain. They are intended for use in control and navigation systems (ground and air) in the analysis of the terrain, solving computational problems and modeling, designing engineering structures, and monitoring the environment.

Simulation Technology Terrain allows you to create visual and measurable perspective images that are very similar to the real terrain. Their inclusion according to a certain scenario in a computer film allows, when viewing it, to "see" the area from different shooting points, in different lighting conditions, for different seasons and days (static model) or to "fly" over it along given or arbitrary trajectories of movement and speed flight - (dynamic model).

The use of computer tools, which include vector or raster displays, allowing you to convert the input in their buffer devices digital information into a given frame, requires the preliminary creation of digital spatial terrain models (PMM) as such information.

Digital PMMs by their very nature are a set of digital semantic, syntactic and structural data recorded on a machine medium, designed to reproduce (visualize) three-dimensional images of the terrain and topographic objects in accordance with the specified conditions for observing (reviewing) the earth's surface.

Initial data for creating digital PMM can serve as photographs, cartographic materials, topographic and digital maps, city plans and reference information, providing data on the position, shape, size, color, and purpose of objects. In this case, the completeness of the PMM will be determined by the information content of the photographs used, and the accuracy - by the accuracy of the original cartographic materials.

Technical means and methods for creating PMM

Development of technical means and methods for creating digital PMM is a difficult scientific and technical problem. The solution to this problem involves:

Development of hardware and software tools for obtaining primary three-dimensional digital information about terrain objects from photographs and map materials;
- creation of a system of three-dimensional cartographic symbols;
- development of methods for the formation of digital PMM using primary cartographic digital information and photographs;
- development of an expert system for the formation of the content of the PMM;
- development of methods for organizing digital data in the PMM bank and principles for building the PMM bank.



Development of hardware and software obtaining primary three-dimensional digital information about terrain objects from photographs and map materials is due to the following fundamental features:

Higher, in comparison with traditional DSM, requirements for digital PMM in terms of completeness and accuracy;
- use as initial decoding photographs obtained by frame, panoramic, slit and CCD imaging systems and not intended for obtaining accurate measuring information about terrain objects.

Creation of a system of three-dimensional cartographic symbols is a fundamentally new task of modern digital cartography. Its essence lies in the creation of a library of conventional signs that are close to the real image of terrain objects.

Methods for the formation of digital PMM using primary digital cartographic information and photographs should ensure, on the one hand, the efficiency of their visualization in the buffer devices of computer systems, and, on the other hand, the required completeness, accuracy and clarity of the three-dimensional image.

The studies currently being carried out have shown that, depending on the composition of the initial data, methods using the following methods can be applied to obtain digital PMMs:

Digital cartographic information;
- digital cartographic information and photographs;
- photographs.

The most promising methods are using digital cartographic information and photographs. The main ones can be methods for creating digital PMMs of various completeness and accuracy: from photographs and DEM; based on photographs and TsKM; from photographs and DTM.

The development of an expert system for the formation of the content of the PMM should provide a solution to the problems of designing spatial images by selecting the object composition, its generalization and symbolization, and displaying it on the display screen in the required map projection. In this case, it will be necessary to develop a methodology for describing not only conventional signs, but also the spatial-logical relations between them.

The solution to the problem of developing methods for organizing digital data in the PMM bank and the principles for constructing the PMM bank is determined by the specifics of spatial images, data presentation formats. It is quite possible that it will be necessary to create a space-time bank with four-dimensional modeling (X, Y, H, t), where PMMs will be generated in real time.

Hardware and software tools for displaying and analyzing PMM

The second problem is development of hardware and software display and analysis of digital PMM. The solution to this problem involves:

Development of technical means for displaying and analyzing PMM;
- development of methods for solving computational problems.

Development of hardware and software display and analysis of digital PMM will require the use of existing graphic workstations, for which special software (SW) must be created.

Development of methods for solving computational problems is an applied problem that arises in the process of using digital PMM for practical purposes. The composition and content of these tasks will be determined by specific PMM consumers.

CHAPTER 1 ANALYSIS OF EXISTING METHODS AND SYSTEMS FOR PROCESSING AND RECOGNITION OF DYNAMIC OBJECTS FROM IMAGE SEQUENCES.

1.1 Image as a carrier of heterogeneous information.

1.2 Classification of image recognition problems.

1.3 Classification of motion estimation methods.

1.3.1 Analysis of comparative methods for assessing movement.

1.3.2 Analysis of gradient methods for motion estimation.

1.4 Classification of groups of signs.

1.5 Analysis of methods for segmentation of moving objects.

1.6 Methods for interpreting events and determining the genre of a scene.

1.7 Processing and recognition systems for dynamic objects.

1.7.1 Commercial hardware and software systems.

1.7.2 Experimental and research software systems.

1.8 Statement of the problem of space-time processing of image sequences.

1.9 Conclusions on the chapter.

CHAPTER 2 MODELS OF PROCESSING AND RECOGNITION OF STATIC AND DYNAMIC IMAGES.

2.1 Model of processing and recognition of static images.

2.2 Model of processing and recognition of dynamic images.

2.3 Descriptive theory of image recognition.

2.4 Extension of the descriptive theory of image recognition.

2.5 Generalized models for the search for target features in the processing and recognition of dynamic objects in complex scenes. FROM

2.6 Conclusions on the chapter.

CHAPTER 3 FINDING AND EVALUATION OF LOCAL FEATURES OF MOTION5 OF DYNAMIC REGIONS.119

3.1 Conditions and limitations of the improved method for processing image sequences.

3.2 Evaluation of local signs of movement.

3.2.1 Initialization stage.

3.2.2 Estimation of the space-time volume of data.

3.2.3 Classification of dynamic regions.

3.3 Methods for finding local motions of regions.

3.3.1 Finding and tracking key points in the scene.

3.3.2 Motion estimation based on 3D flow tensor.

3.4 Refinement of the boundaries of moving regions.

3.5 Conclusions on the chapter.

CHAPTER 4 SEGMENTATION OF DYNAMIC OBJECTS IN COMPLEX SCENES.

4.1 Model of multi-level movement in complex scenes.

4.2 Models for estimating movement on a plane.

4.3 Investigation of properties of the Lie group.

4.4 Isomorphisms and homomorphisms of a group.

4.5 Model of the prehistory of the movement of objects in sequences of images.

4.6 Segmentation of a complex scene into spatial objects.

4.6.1 Presegmentation.

4.6.2 Segmentation.

4.6.3 Post-segmentation.

4.7 Displaying ST of point movement on video sequences.

4.8 Conclusions on the chapter.

CHAPTER 5 RECOGNITION OF DYNAMIC OBJECTS, ACTIVE ACTIONS AND EVENTS OF A COMPLEX SCENE.

5.1 Construction of contextual grammar:.

5.1.1 Formation of parse trees.

5.1.2 Syntactic analysis of a sequence of images.

5.1.3 Syntactic analysis of the scene.

5.2 Building a videographer for a complex scene.

5.3 Recognition of dynamic patterns.

5.4 Scene event recognition.

5.4.1 Way to detect active actions.

5.4.2 Building an event videographer.

5.5 Recognition of events and scene genre.

5.5.1 Scene event recognition.

5.5.2 Scene Genre Recognition.

5.6 Conclusions on the chapter.

CHAPTER 6 CONSTRUCTION OF SYSTEMS FOR PROCESSING AND RECOGNITION OF IMAGE SEQUENCES AND EXPERIMENTAL STUDIES.

6.1 Experimental software complex "ZROEYA".

6.2 Operation of the modules of the experimental system "EROEI.".

6.2.1 Preprocessing module.".

6.2.2 Motion estimation module.

6.2.3 Segmentation module.

6.2.4 Object recognition module.

6.2.5 Active actions recognition module.

6.3 Results of experimental studies.

6.4 Application project "Visual registration of state license plates of vehicles in multi-stream traffic."

6.5 Application project "Identification system for models of refrigerator cases by images".

6.6 Software system«Algorithms for processing and segmentation of landscape images. Identification of objects".

6.7 Conclusions on the chapter.

Recommended list of dissertations

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  • Computer method for face localization in images under difficult lighting conditions 2011, Candidate of Technical Sciences Pakhirka, Andrey Ivanovich

  • A Method for Spatio-Temporal Processing of Unsynchronized Video Sequences in Stereo Vision Systems 2013, Ph.D. Pyankov, Dmitry Igorevich

  • Theory and methods of morphological image analysis 2008, Doctor of Physical and Mathematical Sciences Vizilter, Yuri Valentinovich

  • Recognition of dynamic gestures in a computer vision system based on the medial representation of the shape of images 2012, Ph.D. Kurakin, Alexey Vladimirovich

Introduction to the thesis (part of the abstract) on the topic "Models and methods for recognizing dynamic images based on spatiotemporal analysis of image sequences"

There is a class of tasks in which information about the structure and movement of objects of a complex scene is of particular importance (video surveillance in enclosed spaces, in crowded places, control of the movement of robotic complexes, monitoring of the movement of vehicles, etc.). Image sequences are a complex information resource structured in space and time and combining the original information in the form of multidimensional signals, the form of its representation in a computer and physical models dynamic objects, phenomena, processes. New technical capabilities of digital image processing make it possible to partially take into account such specifics of images, while simultaneously using the achievements of the cognitive theory of human perception of visual images.

Analysis of the spatio-temporal volume of data makes it possible to identify not only static, but also dynamic features of objects of observation. In this case, the recognition problem can be defined as a classification of sets of states or as a classification of trajectories, the solution of which cannot be found by classical recognition methods, because temporal transitions can generate image transformations that are not described by known analytical dependencies; Also, along with the task of recognizing dynamic objects, there are tasks of recognizing active actions and events, for example, to detect unauthorized actions in crowded places or to determine the genre of a scene for indexing in multimedia databases. If we consider the task of recognizing objects and events from sequences of images as a single process, then the most appropriate is a hierarchical approach with elements of parallel processing at each level.

Improvement of technical means for collecting and reproducing information in the form of static images (photos) and video sequences requires further development of methods and algorithms for their processing, analysis of situations and recognition of depicted objects. The initial theoretical formulation of the problem of image recognition dates back to 1960-1970. and is reflected in a number of works by well-known authors. The formulation of an image recognition problem can vary from the object recognition problem itself, scene analysis problems to image understanding problems and machine vision problems. At the same time, intelligent decision-making systems based on pattern and image recognition methods use input information of a complex type. It includes both images obtained in a wide wave range of the electromagnetic spectrum (ultraviolet, visible, infrared, etc.), as well as information in the form of sound images and location data. Despite the different physical nature, such information can be represented in the form of real images of objects and specific images. Radiometric data is flat images of a scene presented in perspective or orthogonal projection. They are formed by measuring the intensity of electromagnetic waves of a certain spectral range, reflected or emitted by objects in the scene. Usually, photometric data measured in the visible spectral range are used - monochromatic (brightness) * or color images: Location data are the spatial coordinates of the observed points of the scene. If the coordinates are measured for all points of the scene, then such an array of location data can be called an image of the depth of the scene. There are simplified image models (for example, affine projection models, represented by low-perspective, para-perspective, orthogonal and parallel projections), in which the depth of the scene is considered a constant value, and the location image of the scene does not carry useful information. In this case, sound information has an auxiliary event character.

Photometric data are measured most quickly. Location information, as a rule, is calculated from data obtained from special devices (for example, a laser range finder, radar) or using a stereoscopic method for analyzing brightness images. Due to the difficulties of obtaining location data quickly (especially for scenes with a rapidly changing shape of visual objects), the tasks of describing a scene from a single visual image prevail, i.e. tasks of monocular visual perception of the scene. In the general case, it is impossible to completely determine the scene geometry from a single image. Only under certain restrictions for fairly simple model scenes and the availability of a priori information about the spatial arrangement of objects, it is possible to build a complete three-dimensional description from a single image. One of the ways out of this situation is the processing and analysis of video sequences received from one or more video cameras installed motionless or moving in space.

Thus, images are the main form of representation of information about the real world, and further development of methods for transforming and semantic analysis of both individual images and video sequences is required. One of the most important directions in the development of such intelligent systems is the automation of the choice of methods for describing and transforming images, taking into account their informational nature and recognition goals already at the initial stages of image processing.

The first work of researchers from the USA (Louisiana State University, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh), Sweden ("Computational Vision and Active Perception Laboratory (CVAP), Department of Numerical Analysis and Computer Science), France (INRIA), Great Britain (University of Leeds) , Germany (University of Karlsruhe), Austria (University of Queensland), Japan, China (School of Computer Science, Fudan University) on image sequence processing and dynamic object recognition were published in the late 1980s Later, similar works began to appear and in Russia: in Moscow (MGU, MAI (STU), MIPT, GosNII AS), St. Petersburg (SPbSU, GUAP, FSUE GOI, LOMO), Ryazan (RGRTU), Samara (SSAU), Voronezh (VSU), Yaroslavl ( YarSU), Kirov (VSU), Taganrog (TTI SFU), Novosibirsk (NSU), Tomsk (TSPU), Irkutsk (IrSU), Ulan-Ude (ESTU) and other cities. in this area, as Academician of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Doctor of Technical Sciences Yu. I. Zhuravlev, Corresponding Member of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Doctor of Technical Sciences V. A. Soifer, Doctor of Technical Sciences N. G. Zagoruiko, Doctor of Technical Sciences L. M. Mestetsky, Doctor of Technical Sciences B. A. Alpatov and others. To date, significant progress has been made in the construction of video surveillance systems, identity authentication systems based on images, etc. However, there are unresolved problems in the recognition of dynamic images due to the complexity and diversity of the behavior of objects in the real world. Thus, this direction needs to improve models, methods and algorithms for recognizing dynamic objects and events from image sequences in different ranges of electromagnetic radiation, which will allow developing video surveillance systems at a qualitatively new level.

The purpose of the dissertation work is to increase the efficiency of recognition of dynamic objects, their active actions and events in complex scenes by image sequences for outdoor and indoor video surveillance systems.

The goal set determined the need to solve the following tasks:

To analyze methods for estimating movement and finding signs of movement of objects from a set of sequential images, methods for segmenting dynamic objects and semantic analysis of complex scenes, as well as approaches to building systems for recognizing and tracking dynamic objects for various purposes.

Develop models for recognition of static and dynamic images based on a hierarchical procedure for processing time series, in particular, image sequences.

To develop a method for estimating the movement of dynamic structures based on spatiotemporal information obtained in different ranges of electromagnetic radiation, which allows choosing segmentation methods depending on the nature of the movement and, thereby, performing adaptive recognition of dynamic images.

Create a model of multilevel movement of dynamic structures in a complex scene, which allows, based on the obtained odometric data, to build trajectories of movement of dynamic structures and put forward hypotheses about the existence of visual objects based on the analysis of the prehistory of movements.

Develop a complex segmentation algorithm that takes into account the set of identified features of dynamic structures for arbitrary directions of movement and overlap of object projections, based on a model of multilevel movement in complex scenes.

Develop a method for recognizing dynamic images presented in terms of a formal grammar and a scene videograph based on the method of collective decision making, as well as methods for recognizing active actions and events in a complex scene using graphs of active actions and events (extending the videograph of a complex scene), and a Bayesian network .

Based on the developed methods and models, design experimental systems for various purposes; designed for processing sequences of images of objects characterized by a fixed and arbitrary set of 2£>-projections, and -recognition of dynamic images c. difficult scenes.

Methods, research. When performing the dissertation work, methods of pattern recognition theory, descriptive theory of image recognition, signal processing theory, methods of vector analysis and tensor calculus, as well as group theory, theory of formal grammars were used.

The scientific novelty of the dissertation work is as follows:

1. A new dynamic image transformation model has been built, which is distinguished by extended hierarchical levels of segmentation (according to local and global motion vectors) and recognition (of objects and their active actions), which allows finding target features for static scenes with moving objects and dynamic scenes based on the concept of maximum dynamic invariant.

2. The descriptive theory of image recognition has been expanded by introducing four new principles: taking into account the recognition goal at the initial stages of analysis, recognition of the behavior of dynamic objects, estimation of prehistory, a variable number of observation objects, which improves the quality of recognition of moving objects by increasing the information content of the initial data.

3. For the first time, an adaptive spatiotemporal method for estimating motion in synchronous sequences of the visible and infrared ranges of electromagnetic radiation has been developed, which makes it possible to extract signs of motion at various hierarchical levels, combining the advantages of both types of image sequences.

4. A new model of multi-level movement has been developed; allowing to decompose the scene into separate levels; not > limited; generally accepted division into foreground and background, which allows for more reliable segmentation of images of objects in; complex perspective scenes.

5: Justified? and built; new; generalized algorithm for segmentation of dynamic objects; with, applying, a set of features^ including behavioral histories; and allows you to track both the dynamics of individual visual objects and the interaction of objects in the scene (overlapping projections; the appearance / disappearance of objects from the field of view of the video sensor) based on group transformations; and the first proposed analysis of the common part of object projections (from two adjacent frames) using integral and invariant estimates.

6. The method of collective decision-making is modified, which differs in finding signs of inter-frame projections of an object and allows taking into account the history of observations for recognizing active actions and events based on the Bayesian network, and also four types of pseudo-distances are proposed to find a measure of similarity v of dynamic images with reference dynamic images in depending on the representation of dynamic features.

Practical significance. The methods and algorithms proposed in the dissertation work are intended for practical application in the "monitoring of vehicles in multi-lane traffic within the framework of the state project "Safe City", in automated control systems for various technological production processes by video sequences, in outdoor video surveillance systems and indoor video surveillance, as well as in systems for identifying objects on aerial photographs and recognizing landscape images.On the basis of dissertation research, software systems for processing and recognizing dynamic objects used in various fields of activity have been developed.

Implementation of work results. The developed programs are registered in the Russian Register of Computer Programs: the program “Image Segmentation handwriting(SegPic)" (Certificate No. 2008614243, Moscow, September 5, 2008); Motion Estimation program (certificate No. 2009611014, Moscow, February 16, 2009); program "Localization of the face (FaceDetection)" (certificate No. 2009611010, Moscow, February 16, 2009); the program "System for imposing visual natural effects on a static image (Natural effects imitation)" (certificate No. 2009612794, Moscow, July 30, 2009); program "Visual smoke detection (SmokeDetection)" (certificate No. 2009612795, Moscow, July 30, 2009); "Program for visual registration of state license plates of vehicles during multi-threaded traffic (FNX CTRAnalyzer)" (certificate No. 2010612795, Moscow, March 23, 2010), program "Nonlinear image enhancement" (certificate No. 2010610658, g. Moscow, March 31, 2010

Acts on the transfer and use of algorithmic and software for recognizing refrigerator cases on an assembly line (JSC KZH Biryusa, Krasnoyarsk), for identifying images of objects on landscape images (Concern for Radio Engineering Vega, JSC KB Luch, Rybinsk, Yaroslavl Region), for forest segmentation of vegetation by a set of successive aerial photographs (OOO Altex Geomatica, Moscow), to detect plates of state license plates of vehicles in video sequences during multi-stream traffic and improve the quality of their display^ (UGIBDD of the Central Internal Affairs Directorate for the Krasnoyarsk Territory, Krasnoyarsk).

The developed algorithms and software are used in the educational process when conducting classes in the disciplines "Intelligent Data Processing", "Computer Technologies in Science and Education", "Theoretical Foundations of Digital Image Processing", "Pattern Recognition", "Neural Networks", "Processing Algorithms images”, “Algorithms for processing video sequences”, “Scene analysis and machine vision” at the Siberian State Aerospace University named after Academician M.F. Reshetnev (SibGAU).

The reliability of the results obtained in the dissertation work is ensured by the correctness of the research methods used, the mathematical rigor of the performed transformations, as well as the correspondence of the formulated provisions and conclusions to the results of their experimental verification.

The main provisions for defense:

1. A model for processing and recognizing dynamic images in complex scenes, significantly expanded by hierarchical levels of segmentation and recognition of not only objects, but also their active actions.

2. Extension of the descriptive theory of image recognition for time series (sequences of images) by increasing the information content of the analyzed data not only in the spatial domain, but also in the time component.

3. Adaptive spatio-temporal method for estimating motion on. on the basis of tensor representations of local IS volumes in synchronous sequences of the visible and infrared ranges of electromagnetic radiation.

4. A model of multi-level movement in complex scenes, which expands the decomposition of perspective scenes into separate levels for a more reliable analysis of object movement trajectories.

5. A generalized segmentation algorithm for dynamic objects that allows, on the basis of group transformations and the proposed integral and invariant estimates, to identify overlapping object projections, the appearance / disappearance of objects from the field of view of the video sensor.

6. Methods for recognizing dynamic images based on a modified method of collective decision making and finding pseudo-distances in metric spaces, as well as active actions and events in complex scenes.

Approbation of work. The main provisions and results of dissertation research were reported and discussed at the 10th international conference "Pattern Recognition and Image Analysis: Modern Information Technologies", (S.-Petersburg, 2010), the international congress "Ultra Modern Telecommunications and Control Systems ICUMT2010" (Moscow, 2010) ; XII International Symposium on Nonparametric Methods in Cybernetics and System Analysis (Krasnoyarsk, 2010), II International Symposium "Intelligent Decision-Technologies - IDT 2010" (Baltimore, 2010), III International Conference. "Automation, Control? and Information Technology - AOIT-ICT"2010" (Novosibirsk, 2010), 10th, 11th and 12th international conferences and exhibitions "Digital signal processing and its applications" (Moscow, 2008 - 2010), X international scientific and technical conference "Theoretical and applied issues of modern information technologies" (Ulan-Ude, 2009), IX international scientific and technical conference "Cybernetics and high technologies of the XXI century" (Voronezh, 2008), all-Russian conference "Models and methods Image Processing” (Krasnoyarsk, 2007), at the X, XI and XIII international scientific conferences “Reshetnev Readings” (Krasnoyarsk, 2006, 2007, 2009), as well as at scientific seminars of the State University of Aerospace Instrumentation (St. Petersburg, 2009), Institute for Computational Modeling of CO

RAS (Krasnoyarsk, 2009), Institute of Image Processing Systems RAS (Samara, 2010).

Publications. Based on the results of the dissertation research, 53 printed works were published, including 1 monograph, 26 articles (of which 14 articles - in publications included in the list of HAC, 2 articles - in publications listed in the Thomson Reuters: Science Citation Index Expanded / Conference Proceedings Citation Index”), 19 abstracts, 7 certificates registered in the Russian Register of Computer Programs, as well as 3 research reports.

Personal contribution. All the main results presented in the dissertation, including the formulation of problems and their mathematical and algorithmic solutions, were obtained by the author personally, or performed under his scientific supervision and with direct participation. Based on the materials of the work, two dissertations were defended for the degree of candidate of technical sciences, during which the author was the official supervisor.

Work structure. The work consists of introduction, six chapters, conclusion, bibliography. The main text of the dissertation contains 326 pages, the presentation is illustrated by 63 figures and 23 tables. The bibliographic list includes 232 titles.

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Dissertation conclusion on the topic "Theoretical Foundations of Informatics", Favorskaya, Margarita Nikolaevna

6.7 Chapter Conclusions

In this chapter, the structure and main functions of the experimental software complex "ZROEL", v.1.02, which; performs systemic hierarchical processing of image sequences up to the highest levels of object and event recognition, are considered in detail. automated system, which requires human participation for training and tuning of graphs, networks and classifiers. A number of low-level system modules operate automatically. The structure of the software package is such that it is possible to modify modules without affecting other modules of the system. Functional diagrams of the main modules of the system are presented: a module, preprocessing, a motion estimation module, a segmentation module, an object recognition module, and an active actions recognition module.

Experimental studies based on this software package were carried out on several video sequences and infrared sequences from the OTCBVS^07 test database, on the test video sequences of Hamburg taxi, Rubik cube. "Silent", as well as on their own video material. Five motion estimation methods were tested. It has been experimentally shown that the block matching method and the proposed infrared sequence method show similar values ​​and are the least accurate. The proposed method for the video sequence and the method for tracking point features show close results. At the same time, the developed tensor approach requires a smaller amount of computer calculations compared to the method of tracking point features. Sharing It is expedient to use the synchronized video sequence and the infrared sequence to find the modulus of the velocity vector in conditions of reduced stage illumination.

To recognize visual objects, four types of pseudo-distances were used (Hausdorff, Gromov-Hausdorff, Fréchet pseudo-distances, natural pseudo-distance) to find a measure of similarity of input dynamic images with reference dynamic images (depending on the presentation of a dynamic feature - a set of numerical characteristics, sets of vectors, sets of functions). They have shown their validity for images with admissible morphological transformations. We used integrated normalized estimates of the shape of the contour Kc of the common part of the projection of the object between conditionally adjacent frames and the area of ​​the common part 5e and an invariant estimate - the correlation function of the common parts of the projections Fcor. The use of a modified method of collective decision-making makes it possible to "discard" unsuccessful observations of input images (cases of overlapping projections of objects, scene distortion from lighting sources, etc.) and select the most appropriate observations. Experiments have shown that the use of a modified method of collective decision-making increases the accuracy of recognition by an average of 2.4-2.9%.

Experimental results of motion assessment, segmentation and object recognition were obtained on test sequences of images ("Hamburg taxi", "Rubik cube". "Silent", video sequences and infrared sequences from the test database "OTSVVS" 07). examples from the test databases "PETS", "CAVIAR", "VACE". The nature of the test visual sequence affects the performance. Objects that carry out rotational movement are recognized worse ("Rubik cube"), better - man-made objects of small sizes ("Hamburg taxi", "Video 1"). The best results are shown by recognition by two sequences. Also, the best experimental results were achieved when recognizing periodic active actions of people not in groups (walking, running, raising hands). False positives are due to the presence of shadows in a number of places on the scene .

At the end* of the sixth chapter, such applied projects were considered as “Visual registration of state license plates of vehicles in multi-stream traffic”, “System for identifying models of refrigerator cases from images”, “Algorithms for processing i-segmentation, landscape images. Identification of objects ". Algorithmic and. software was transferred to interested organizations: The results of test operation showed the operability of the software developed on the basis of the models and methods proposed in the dissertation work.

CONCLUSION

In the dissertation work, an important scientific and technical problem of processing spatio-temporal data obtained from sequences of the visible and infrared ranges of electromagnetic radiation and recognizing dynamic images in complex scenes was posed and solved. The system of hierarchical methods for processing and extracting features from spatio-temporal data is a methodological basis for solving applied problems in the field of video surveillance.

The introduction substantiates the relevance of the dissertation work, formulates the goal and sets the research objectives, shows the scientific novelty and practical value of the research performed, and presents the main provisions submitted for defense.

The first chapter shows that visual objects in video sequences are characterized by a more multidimensional feature vector than images in the classical formulation of the static image recognition problem.

A classification of the main types of recognition problems for static images, static scenes with motion elements and image sequences is constructed, which reflects the historical nature of the development of mathematical methods in this area. A detailed analysis of motion estimation methods, segmentation algorithms for moving objects, and methods for interpreting events in complex scenes was carried out.

Existing commercial hardware and software systems in such areas as monitoring vehicles for various purposes, processing sports video materials, security (face recognition, unauthorized entry of people into a protected area) are considered. Research developments for video surveillance systems are also analyzed.

At the end of Chapter 1, the statement of the problem of spatiotemporal processing of image sequences is presented, presented in the form of three levels and five stages of processing and recognition of visual information from image sequences.

In the second chapter of the dissertation, formal models for processing and recognizing objects by their static images and image sequences are developed. Admissible mappings are constructed in the space of images and the space of features for the direct problem and the inverse problem. Rules for constructing invariant decision functions and a generalized maximum dynamical invariant are given. When recognizing, the trajectories of different images in the multidimensional space of features can intersect. When the projections of objects intersect, finding a generalized maximum dynamic invariant becomes even more difficult, and in some cases even impossible.

The basic principles of the descriptive theory of image recognition are considered, which is based on regular methods for selecting and synthesizing algorithmic procedures for processing information in image recognition. Additional principles are proposed that expand the descriptive theory for dynamic images: taking into account the recognition goal at the initial stages of image sequence processing, recognition of behavioral situations of dynamic objects, estimation of the prehistory of dynamic objects, a variable number of observation objects in complex scenes.

The problem of searching for target features for analyzing image sequences depending on the type of shooting (in the case of single-angle shooting), the movement of the video sensor, and the presence of moving objects in the visibility zone is considered in detail. Descriptions of four situations in the feature space are given as the task becomes more complex.

The third chapter formulates the stages of processing sequences of images and recognition of objects, active actions, events and scene genre. The stages reflect the sequential hierarchical nature of visual information processing. The conditions and limitations of hierarchical methods for spatiotemporal processing of image sequences are also presented.

The classification of image dynamic regions is performed by analyzing the eigenvalues ​​31) of the structural tensor, whose eigenvectors are determined from local displacements of the image intensities of neighboring frames and are used to estimate the local orientations of dynamic regions. A new method for estimating motion in the space-time volume of data in the visible and infrared ranges of radiation based on the tensor approach is substantiated. The possibility of using a spatially variable kernel, adaptive to the size and orientation of the point environment, is considered. Adaptation of the environment, which initially has the shape of a circle, and then turns into the shape of an oriented ellipse after 2-3 iterations, improves the assessment of oriented structures in the image. Such a strategy improves gradient estimates in the spatiotemporal dataset.

Estimation of local motion parameters is performed by calculating geometric primitives and singular points of the local region. Thus, the assessment of local signs of the movement of regions is the basis for putting forward subsequent hypotheses that visual objects belong to one or another class. The use of synchronous video sequences and infrared sequences improves the results of segmentation of moving regions in the image and finding local motion vectors.

It is shown that the boundaries in color images can be estimated based on multidimensional gradient methods built in all directions at each point of the boundary, vector methods using order statistics about a color image, as well as using a tensor approach in the framework of multidimensional gradient methods. Ways to refine contour information are essential for regions with an arbitrary number of valid projections.

In the fourth chapter, a multi-level motion model is built based on motion structures, which reflects the dynamics of objects in real scenes and expands the two-level representation of the scene, divided into objects of interest and a stationary background.

Models of motion of objects on a plane based on the theory of compact Lie groups are investigated. Models for projective transformation and varieties of affine transformation models are presented. Such transformations well describe motion structures with a limited number of projections (technogenic objects). The representation of structures with an unlimited number of projections (anthropogenic objects) by affine or projective transformations is accompanied by a number of additional conditions (in particular, the requirement that objects are far from the video sensor, small-sized objects, etc.). Definitions and a theorem proved by L. S. Pontryagin are given, on the basis of which it was possible to find an internal automorphism of group coordinates describing some object up to shifts between neighboring frames. The magnitude of the shifts is determined by the method for estimating the movement of the interframe difference developed in Chapter 3.

An extension of admissible transitions between groups of transformations due to the duality of the nature of 2£)-images (display of changes in the projection of an individual object and visual intersection of several objects: (object interaction)) is constructed. Criteria are found that, when changing groups of transformations, fix active actions and events in the scene, namely, integrated estimates of the shape of the contour Kc of the common part of the projection between conditionally adjacent frames and the area of ​​the common part 5e and invariant estimates - the correlation function of the common parts of the projections Pcog and structural Lie group constants c "g, which allow us to estimate the degree of variability and reveal the nature of the movement of observed objects.

A model of the prehistory of the movement of objects in image sequences was also built, including time series of movement trajectories, changes in the shape of an object when it moves in 3L>-space, as well as changes in the shape of an object associated with the interaction of objects in the scene and the appearance/disappearance of an object from the field of view of the sensor (used to recognize active actions and events in the scene). 1

A generalized algorithm for segmenting objects in complex scenes has been developed that takes into account complex cases of segmentation (overlapping images, the appearance and disappearance of objects from the camera's field of view, movement towards the camera), which includes three sub-stages: pre-segmentation, segmentation and post-segmentation. For each sub-stage, tasks, initial and output data are formulated, flowcharts of algorithms are developed that allow segmenting complex scenes using the advantages of synchronous sequences from different radiation ranges.

The fifth chapter deals with the process of dynamic pattern recognition using a formal grammar, a scene videographer, and a modified method of collective decision making. A dynamic scene with multi-level movement has a time-varying structure, so it is advisable to use structural recognition methods. The proposed three-level contextual grammar for recognizing complex scenes with multilevel movement of objects implements two tasks: the task of parsing a sequence of images and the task of parsing a scene.

A more visual means of semantic description of a scene is a videograph built using the hierarchical grouping method. Based on the complex features of the lower level, local spatial structures that are stable in time, local spatial objects are formed, and a videograph of the scene is built, including recognized spatial objects, a set of their inherent actions, as well as spatio-temporal connections between them.

The modified method of collective decision making is based on a two-level recognition procedure. At the first level, the recognition of the belonging of an image to a particular area of ​​competence is carried out. At the second level, the decision rule comes into force, the competence of which is maximum in a given area. Expressions for pseudo-distances are constructed when finding a measure of similarity of input dynamic images with reference dynamic images, depending on the representation of dynamic features - a set of numerical characteristics, a set of vectors, a set of functions.

When recognizing events, the complex scene videographer is extended to the event videographer: An object-dependent model of a dynamic object is built. As a matching function, the simplest classifiers in the feature space are used (for example, by the ^-means method), since the matching is carried out according to a limited set of templates associated with a previously identified object. The ways of forming templates of projections of visual objects are considered.

The videograph of events is built on the basis of Markov networks. Methods for detecting active actions of agents, as well as the procedure for constructing and cutting an event videograph for recognizing events in a scene, are considered. At the same time, for each event, its own model is built, which is trained on test examples. Event detection is reduced to clustering sequentially executed active actions based on a Bayesian approach. A recursive cutting is performed - the matrix of weight coefficients in the input video sequence and comparison with the reference events obtained at the training stage. This information is* the source for determining the genre of the scene and, if necessary, indexing the video sequence in the database. A scheme for understanding and interpreting images and video materials for indexing in multimedia Internet databases has been developed.

The sixth chapter presents a description of the experimental software complex "SPOER", v.l.02 for processing image sequences and recognizing moving objects and events. It performs systemic hierarchical processing of image sequences up to the highest levels of object and event recognition. It is an automated system that requires human intervention to train and tune graphs, networks, and classifiers. A number of low-level system modules operate automatically.

In experimental studies conducted using the SPOER software package, v.l.02, video sequences and infrared image sequences from the OTCBVS "07 test base", test video sequences "Hamburg taxi", "Rubik cube". "Silent" and our own video materials were used. Five motion estimation methods were tested.The proposed method for the video sequence shows the most accurate results and requires less computer calculations compared to other methods.The combined use of synchronized video sequences and infrared sequences is useful when finding velocity vector modules in low-light scene conditions.

To recognize visual objects with acceptable morphological transformations of projections, we used integrated normalized estimates of the shape of the contour Kc of the common part of the object projection between conditionally adjacent frames and the area of ​​the common part 5e and an invariant estimate - the correlation function of the common parts of the projections Fcor. The use of a modified method of collective decision-making makes it possible to "discard" unsuccessful observations of input images (cases of overlapping projections of objects, visual distortions of the scene from light sources, etc.) and select the most appropriate observations. Experiments have shown that the use of a modified method of collective decision-making increases the accuracy of recognition by an average of 2.4-2.9%.

Experimental score-motion results; segmentation and object recognition were obtained on test sequences of images ("Hamburg taxi", "Rubik cube", "Silent", video sequences and infrared sequences from the test database "OTCBVS * 07"). To recognize the active actions of people, examples from the test databases "PETS", "CAVIAR", "VACE" were used. The best results are shown by recognition by two sequences. Also, the best experimental results were achieved when recognizing periodic active actions of people not in groups (walking, running, raising hands). False positives are caused by backlight and the presence of shadows in a number of places in the scene.

On the basis of the experimental complex "ZROEYA", V. 1.02, video information processing systems for various purposes were developed: "Visual registration of state license plates of vehicles in multi-stream traffic", "Identification system for models of refrigerator cases by images", "Algorithms for processing and segmenting landscape images . Identification of objects". Algorithmic and software were transferred to interested organizations. The results of the test operation showed the operability of the software developed on the basis of the models and methods proposed in the dissertation work.

Thus, the following results were obtained in the dissertation work:

1. Formal models of processing and recognition of spatio-temporal structures are constructed based on an adaptive hierarchical procedure. processing of image sequences, which differ in that they take into account isomorphic and homomorphic transformations and derive generalized functions of static and dynamic invariants. Models for searching for static and dynamic features of objects were also built for four tasks of analyzing sequences of images, depending on the presence of a moving1 video sensor and moving objects in the scene.

2. The main provisions of the descriptive approach to image sequence recognition have been expanded, allowing to take into account the goals of recognition at the initial stages of image sequence processing with subsequent segmentation of areas of interest, build motion trajectories and recognize the behavior of dynamic objects, take into account the history of the movement of objects when crossing their projections, accompany a variable number objects of observation.

3. A hierarchical method for processing and recognizing spatio-temporal structures has been developed, consisting of three levels and five stages and involving the normalization of object projections, which makes it possible to reduce the number of standards for one class when recognizing complex dynamic objects.

4. A method for estimating motion for sequences of images from the visible and infrared ranges of electromagnetic radiation has been developed, which differs in that spatio-temporal data sets are used, presented in the form of 3£> structural tensors and bB tensors. flow, respectively. The resulting motion estimate allows you to choose the most effective method segmentation of dynamic visual objects that differ in the number of valid projections.

5. A model of multilevel movement of image regions based on local velocity vectors has been built, which differs in that it allows dividing the scene not only into foreground and background objects, but also into levels of movement of objects distant from the observer. This is especially true for complex scenes recorded by a moving video sensor, when all objects in the scene are in relative motion.

6. An adaptive segmentation algorithm for dynamic objects has been developed: a) for objects with a limited number of projections, based on the analysis of the prehistory of the movement of local dynamic regions, characterized in that when images overlap, the shape of the region is completed according to the current template and, subject to the application of the Kalman filter, it is predicted current, trajectory; b) for objects with an arbitrary number of projections based on complex analysis, color, texture, statistical, topological and motion features, characterized in that when images overlap, the shape of the region is completed using the active contours method.

7. A method is proposed for constructing a dynamic videograph of a complex scene using the method of hierarchical grouping of lower-level complex features into local spatial structures that are stable in time, and then into local spatial objects. The generated videographer establishes temporal relationships between objects and retains all generalized features for recognizing events in the scene. The two-dimensional grammar of M.I. Schlesinger in the framework of the structural recognition method to a three-level contextual grammar.

8: For the recognition of dynamic objects, the collective decision-making method is modified, which first recognizes that the image belongs to the area of ​​competence, and then chooses the decision rule whose competence is maximum in the given area. Four types of pseudo-distances are constructed to find a measure of similarity between input dynamic images and standards, depending on the representation of dynamic features.

9. A method for recognizing events based on the Bayesian network has been developed, which performs recursive cutting of the matrix of weight coefficients in the input video sequence and comparison with reference events obtained at the training stage. This information is the source for determining the genre of the scene and indexing video sequences in multimedia Internet databases.

10. Practical problems of processing and recognition of sequences of images are solved using the adaptive-hierarchical method of spatio-temporal processing, the efficiency of the method is shown, the effectiveness of the system of hierarchical processing methods is demonstrated, etc. recognition of visual information with the possibility of adaptive selection of features c. problem solving process. The results obtained in the form of designed experimental systems were transferred to interested organizations.

Thus, in this dissertation work, an important scientific and technical problem of information support for video surveillance systems has been solved and a new direction has been developed in the field of spatio-temporal processing and recognition of dynamic images.

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Please note that the scientific texts presented above are posted for review and obtained through original dissertation text recognition (OCR). In this connection, they may contain errors related to the imperfection of recognition algorithms. There are no such errors in the PDF files of dissertations and abstracts that we deliver.

The classification of types of modeling can be carried out for various reasons. Models can be distinguished by a number of characteristics: the nature of the objects being modeled, the areas of application, the depth of modeling. Consider 2 classification options. The first version of the classification. According to the depth of modeling, modeling methods are divided into two groups: material (objective) and ideal modeling. Material modeling is based on the material analogy of an object and a model. It is carried out by reproducing the basic geometric, physical or functional characteristics of the object under study. A special case of material modeling is physical modeling. A special case of physical modeling is analog modeling. It is based on the analogy of phenomena that have a different physical nature, but are described by the same mathematical relationships. An example of analog modeling is the study of mechanical vibrations (for example, an elastic beam) using an electrical system described by the same differential equations. Since experiments with an electrical system are usually simpler and cheaper, it is studied as an analogue of a mechanical system (for example, when studying the vibrations of bridges).

Ideal modeling is based on an ideal (mental) analogy. In economic research (at a high level of their conduct, and not on the subjective desires of individual leaders) this is the main type of modeling. Ideal modeling, in turn, is divided into two subclasses: sign (formalized) and intuitive modeling. In symbolic modeling, diagrams, graphs, drawings, formulas serve as models. The most important type of sign modeling is math modeling, carried out by means of logical and mathematical constructions.

Intuitive modeling is found in those areas of science and practice where the cognitive process is at an early stage or there are very complex systemic relationships. Such studies are called thought experiments. In economics, sign or intuitive modeling is mainly used; it describes the worldview of scientists or the practical experience of workers in the field of managing it. The second version of the classification is shown in Fig. 1.3. In accordance with the classification sign of completeness, modeling is divided into complete, incomplete and approximate. In full simulation, the models are identical to the object in time and space. For incomplete simulations, this identity is not preserved. Approximate modeling is based on similarity, in which some aspects of a real object are not modeled at all. The theory of similarity states that absolute similarity is possible only when one object is replaced by another exactly the same. Therefore, when modeling, absolute similarity does not take place. Researchers strive to ensure that the model well reflects only the studied aspect of the system. For example, to assess the noise immunity of discrete information transmission channels, the functional and information models of the system may not be developed. To achieve the goal of modeling, the event model described by the matrix of conditional probabilities ||рij|| transitions of the i-th symbol of the j-th alphabet. Depending on the type of media and the signature of the model, the following types of modeling are distinguished: deterministic and stochastic, static and dynamic, discrete, continuous and discrete-continuous. Deterministic modeling displays processes in which the absence of random influences is assumed. Stochastic modeling takes into account probabilistic processes and events. Static modeling is used to describe the state of an object at a fixed point in time, while dynamic modeling is used to study an object in time. At the same time, they operate with analog (continuous), discrete and mixed models. Depending on the form of implementation of the carrier, modeling is classified into mental and real. Mental modeling is used when models are not realizable in a given time interval or there are no conditions for their physical creation (for example, the situation of the microworld). Mental modeling of real systems is realized in the form of visual, symbolic and mathematical. A significant number of tools and methods have been developed to represent functional, informational and event models of this type of modeling. With visual modeling based on human ideas about real objects, visual models are created that display the phenomena and processes occurring in the object. An example of such models are educational posters, drawings, charts, diagrams. Hypothetical modeling is based on a hypothesis about the patterns of the process in a real object, which reflects the level of knowledge of the researcher about the object and is based on cause-and-effect relationships between the input and output of the object under study. This type of modeling is used when knowledge about the object is not enough to build formal models.

Dynamic Simulation- a multi-step process, each step corresponds to the behavior of the economic system for a certain time period. Each current step receives the results of the previous step, which, according to certain rules, determines the current result and generates data for the next step.

Thus, a dynamic model in an accelerated mode allows you to explore the development of a complex economic system, say, an enterprise, over a certain planning period in the context of changing resource support (raw materials, personnel, finance, technology), and present the results to the corresponding enterprise development plan for a given period.

To solve dynamic optimization problems in mathematical programming, a corresponding class of models called dynamic programming was formed, its founder was the famous American mathematician R. Bellman. He proposed a special method for solving a problem of this class based on the “optimality principle”, according to which the optimal solution of a problem is found by dividing it into n stages, each of which represents a subtask with respect to one variable. The calculation is performed in such a way that the optimal result of one subtask is the initial data for the next subtask, taking into account the equations and the constraints of the connection between them, the result of the last of them is the result of the entire task. Common to all models of this category is that the current management decisions "manifest" both in the period relating directly to the moment of the decision, and in subsequent periods. Consequently, the most important economic effects occur in different periods, and not only within one period. These kinds of economic consequences tend to be significant when it comes to management decisions related to the possibility of new investments, increase in production capacity or training of personnel for the purpose. creating prerequisites for increasing profitability or reducing costs in subsequent periods.

Typical applications for dynamic programming models in decision making are:

Development of inventory management rules that establish the moment of replenishment of stocks and the size of the replenishment order.

Development of principles for scheduling production and leveling employment in the face of fluctuating demand for products.

Determination of the required volume of spare parts, guaranteeing effective use expensive equipment.

Distribution of scarce capital investments between possible new directions of their use.

In problems solved by the dynamic programming method, the value of the objective function (optimized criterion) for the entire process is obtained by simply summing the particular values fi(x) the same criterion at separate steps, i.e.

If the criterion (or function) f(x) has this property, then it is called additive (additive).

Dynamic Programming Algorithm

1. At the selected step, we set a set (defined by conditions-restrictions) of values ​​of the variable characterizing the last step, possible states of the system at the penultimate step. For each possible state and each value of the selected variable, we calculate the values ​​of the objective function. From them, for each outcome of the penultimate step, we choose the optimal values ​​of the objective function and the corresponding values ​​of the variable under consideration. For each outcome of the penultimate step, we remember the optimal value of the variable (or several values, if there is more than one such value) and the corresponding value of the objective function. We get and fix the corresponding table.

2. We proceed to optimization at the stage preceding the previous one ("reverse" movement), looking for the optimal value of the new variable with the previously found optimal values ​​of the following variables fixed. The optimal value of the objective function at subsequent steps (with optimal values ​​of subsequent variables) is read from the previous table. If the new variable characterizes the first step, then go to item 3. Otherwise, repeat step 2 for the next variable.

3. Given the initial condition in the problem, for each possible value of the first variable, we calculate the value of the objective function. We choose the optimal value of the objective function corresponding to the optimal value(s) of the first variable.

4. With the known optimal value of the first variable, we determine the initial data for the next (second) step and, according to the last table, the optimal value(s) of the next (second) variable.

5. If the next variable does not characterize the last step, then go to step 4. Otherwise, go to step 6.

6. We form (write out) the optimal solution.


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Similar information.


Until recently, geographical factors that have a significant impact on the spread of diseases have been studied relatively little. The validity of the assumption of homogeneous mixing of the population in a small town or village has long been questioned, although it is quite acceptable as a first approximation to accept that the movements of sources of infection are random and in many ways resemble the movement of particles in a colloidal solution. Nevertheless, it is necessary, of course, to have some idea of ​​what effect the presence of a large number of susceptible individuals at sites quite long distances from any given source of infection would have.

The deterministic model, due to D. Kendall, assumes the existence of an infinite two-dimensional continuum of the population, in which there are about 0 individuals per unit area. Consider the area surrounding the point P, and assume that the numbers of susceptible, infected and removed from the collective individuals are equal, respectively. The x, y, and z values ​​can be functions of time and position, but their sum must be equal to one. The basic equations of motion, similar to system (9.18), have the form

where is the spatially weighted mean

Let and be constants, be an area element surrounding the point Q, and be a non-negative weighting factor.

Let us assume that the initial concentration of diseases is evenly distributed in some small area surrounding the initial focus. Note also that the factor o is explicitly introduced into the Rohu product so that the infection rate remains independent of the population density. If y remained constant on the plane, then the integral (9.53) would surely converge. In this case, it would be convenient to require that

The described model makes it possible to advance mathematical research quite far. It can be shown (with one or two caveats) that a pandemic will cover the entire plane if and only if the population density exceeds a threshold value . If a pandemic has occurred, then its intensity is determined by the single positive root of the equation

The meaning of this expression is that the proportion of individuals who eventually fall ill in any area, no matter how far it is from the original epidemic focus, will be no less?. Obviously, this Kendall pandemic threshold theorem is similar to the Kermack and McKendrick threshold theorem, in which the spatial factor was not taken into account.

It is also possible to build a model for the following particular case. Let x and y be the spatial densities of susceptible and infected individuals, respectively. If we assume that the infection is local and isotropic, then it is easy to show that the equations corresponding to the first two equations of system (9.18) can be written as

where are not spatial coordinates] and

For the initial period, when it can be approximately considered a constant value, the second equation of the system (9.56) takes the form

This is the standard diffusion equation, the solution of which is

where the constant C depends on the initial conditions.

The total number of infected individuals outside the circle of radius R is

Hence,

and if , then . The radius corresponding to any selected value grows at a rate of . This value can be considered as the rate of spread of the epidemic, and its limiting value for large t is equal to . In one case of a measles epidemic in Glasgow for almost half a year, the spread rate was about 135 m per week.

Equations (9.56) can easily be modified to take into account the migration of susceptible and infected individuals, as well as the emergence of new susceptible individuals. As in the case of recurring epidemics discussed in Sect. 9.4, an equilibrium solution is possible here, but small oscillations decay just as quickly or even faster than in the non-spatial model. Thus, it is clear that in this case the deterministic approach has certain limitations. In principle, one should, of course, prefer stochastic models, but usually their analysis is associated with enormous difficulties, at least if it is carried out in a purely mathematical way.

Several works have been done to model these processes. Thus, Bartlett used computers to study several successive artificial epidemics. The spatial factor was taken into account by the introduction of the cell grid. Within each cell, typical non-spatial models were used for continuous or discrete time, and random migration of infected individuals between cells sharing a common boundary was allowed. Information was obtained on the critical volume of the population, below which the epidemic process attenuates. The main parameters of the model were derived from actual epidemiological and demographic data.

Recently, the author of this book undertook a number of similar studies in which an attempt was made to construct a spatial generalization of stochastic models for the simple and general cases considered in Sec. 9.2 and 9.3. Suppose we have a square lattice, each node of which is occupied by one receptive individual. The source of infection is placed in the center of the square and such a process of the chain-binomial type for discrete time is considered, in which only individuals directly adjacent to any source of infection are exposed to the risk of infection. These can be either only four nearest neighbors (Scheme 1), or also individuals located diagonally (Scheme 2); in the second case, there will be a total of eight individuals lying on the sides of the square, the center of which is occupied by the source of infection.

It is obvious that the choice of scheme is arbitrary, however, in our work, the latter arrangement was used.

At first, a simple epidemic with no cases of recovery was considered. For convenience, a grid of limited size was used, and information about each individual's condition (i.e., whether they are susceptible to or a source of infection) was stored on a computer. The modeling process kept a running record of changes in the status of all individuals and counted the total number of new cases in all squares with the original source of infection in the center. The machine's memory also recorded the current values ​​of the sum and the sum of the squares of the number of cases. This made it fairly easy to calculate mean values ​​and standard errors. The details of this study will be published in a separate article, but here we will note only one or two particular features of this work. For example, it is clear that with a very high probability of sufficient contact, an almost deterministic spread of the epidemic will take place, in which at each new stage in the development of the epidemic a new square with sources of infection will be added.

At lower probabilities, there will be a truly stochastic spread of the epidemic. Since each source of infection can infect only eight of its nearest neighbors, and not the entire population, one would expect that the epidemic curve for the entire lattice would not increase as sharply as if the entire population were homogeneously mixed. This prediction does indeed come true, and the number of new cases increases more or less linearly over time until edge effects start to kick in (because the lattice has a limited extent).

Table 9. Spatial stochastic model of a simple epidemic built on a 21x21 lattice

In table. 9 shows the results obtained for a lattice with one initial source of infection and a probability of sufficient contact equal to 0.6. It can be seen that between the first and tenth stages of the epidemic, the average number of new cases increases by about 7.5 each time. After that, the edge effect begins to dominate, and the epidemic curve drops sharply down.

One can also determine the average number of new cases for any given grid point and thus find the epidemic curve for that point. It is convenient to average over all points lying on the border of the square in the center of which the source of infection is located, although the symmetry in this case will not be complete. Comparing the results for squares of different sizes gives a picture of an epidemic wave moving away from the original source of infection.

Here we have a sequence of distributions whose modes increase in a linear progression and the variance increases continuously.

A more detailed study of the general type of epidemic was also carried out, with the removal of infected individuals. Of course, these are all very simplified models. However, it is important to understand that they can be significantly improved. To account for population mobility, it must be assumed that susceptible individuals also become infected from sources of infection that are not their immediate neighbors. You may need to use some kind of weighting factor here, depending on the distance. The modifications that will need to be introduced into the computer program in this case are relatively small. At the next stage, it may be possible to describe in this way real or typical populations with the most diverse structure. This will open up the possibility of assessing the epidemiological state of real populations in terms of the risk of various types of epidemics.